Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Zwaluwen

Purmersteijn

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.5% DRAW 21.9% AWAY 37.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.3% 2.45 DRAW 22.9% 4.20 AWAY 37.8% 2.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Purmersteijn

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Zwaluwen Purmersteijn

Shots 7.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 8.3 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Zwaluwen Purmersteijn

Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 2.5

Purmersteijn has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Zwaluwen Purmersteijn

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Zwaluwen ↓ -0.10 (-3.9%)

Purmersteijn ↑ +0.35 (+15.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.