Sport Boys vs Alianza Atletico

27 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +6.0 pp

Sport Boys

Alianza Atletico

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.2% DRAW 29.8% AWAY 33.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.7% 2.17 DRAW 29.2% 3.25 AWAY 27.1% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Alianza Atletico clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 33.1% win probability, compared with 27.1% implied by the market. The 6.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Alianza Atletico has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sport Boys Alianza Atletico

Shots 9.8 · On target 2.8 Shots 19.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Alianza Atletico, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sport Boys Alianza Atletico

Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Alianza Atletico has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sport Boys Alianza Atletico

The combined recent performance profile favours Alianza Atletico.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sport Boys ↑ +0.33 (+17.9%)

Alianza Atletico ↓ -0.84 (-19.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.