AD Tarma vs Sporting Cristal

27 Sep 2026 · 22:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

AD Tarma

Sporting Cristal

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.3% DRAW 28.8% AWAY 46.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.5% 3.40 DRAW 29.0% 3.22 AWAY 43.5% 2.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Sporting Cristal has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AD Tarma Sporting Cristal

Shots 11.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 14.8 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Sporting Cristal, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AD Tarma Sporting Cristal

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 3.5

Sporting Cristal has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AD Tarma Sporting Cristal

The combined recent performance profile favours Sporting Cristal.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

AD Tarma ↑ +0.06 (+1.8%)

Sporting Cristal ↓ -0.15 (-6.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.