Independiente Medellin vs Millonarios

30 Sep 2026 · 03:05

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Independiente Medellin

Millonarios

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.1% DRAW 27.1% AWAY 32.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.3% 2.33 DRAW 27.2% 3.63 AWAY 30.4% 3.24

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Millonarios has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente Medellin Millonarios

Shots 15.0 · On target 5.8 Shots 16.3 · On target 8.5

Recent attacking output favours Millonarios, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente Medellin Millonarios

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Millonarios has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente Medellin Millonarios

The combined recent performance profile favours Millonarios.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Independiente Medellin ↑ +0.11 (+5.0%)

Millonarios ↑ +0.09 (+2.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.