South Korea vs Uruguay

28 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

South Korea

Uruguay

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.2% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 31.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.0% 2.45 DRAW 29.8% 3.29 AWAY 30.2% 3.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Uruguay has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

South Korea Uruguay

Shots 10.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Uruguay, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

South Korea Uruguay

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Uruguay has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

South Korea Uruguay

The combined recent performance profile favours Uruguay.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

South Korea ↑ +0.12 (+5.0%)

Uruguay ↓ -0.36 (-9.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.