CA Juventus vs Uniao Sao Joao

22 Sep 2026 · 01:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

CA Juventus

Uniao Sao Joao

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.7% DRAW 28.2% AWAY 19.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.3% 1.90 DRAW 28.8% 3.25 AWAY 21.9% 4.29

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CA Juventus relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.7% win probability, compared with 49.3% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CA Juventus has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CA Juventus Uniao Sao Joao

Shots 10.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 7.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours CA Juventus, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CA Juventus Uniao Sao Joao

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.3

CA Juventus has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CA Juventus Uniao Sao Joao

The combined recent performance profile favours CA Juventus.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

CA Juventus = (0.0%)

Uniao Sao Joao ↑ +0.42 (+10.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.