Corinthians (W) vs Bahia (W)

22 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.5 pp

Corinthians (W)

Bahia (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 78.5% DRAW 13.4% AWAY 8.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 74.0% 1.27 DRAW 15.8% 5.96 AWAY 10.2% 9.21

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Corinthians (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 78.5% win probability, compared with 74.0% implied by the market. The 4.5 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Corinthians (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Corinthians (W) Bahia (W)

Shots 19.5 · On target 8.3 Shots 11.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Corinthians (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Corinthians (W) Bahia (W)

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Corinthians (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Corinthians (W) Bahia (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Corinthians (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Corinthians (W) ↓ -0.04 (-3.1%)

Bahia (W) ↑ +1.83 (+24.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.