Montevideo Wanderers vs Cerrito

24 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Montevideo Wanderers

Cerrito

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.1% DRAW 28.1% AWAY 23.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.6% 1.88 DRAW 27.6% 3.45 AWAY 21.8% 4.38

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Cerrito has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Montevideo Wanderers Cerrito

Shots 3.3 · On target 1.3 Shots 7.8 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Cerrito, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Montevideo Wanderers Cerrito

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Montevideo Wanderers Cerrito

The combined recent performance profile favours Cerrito.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Montevideo Wanderers ↑ +0.05 (+3.2%)

Cerrito ↑ +0.09 (+1.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.