Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado

24 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Cerro

Deportivo Maldonado

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 24.2% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 46.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.2% 3.70 DRAW 29.2% 3.20 AWAY 45.6% 2.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Deportivo Maldonado

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cerro Deportivo Maldonado

Shots 5.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Deportivo Maldonado, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cerro Deportivo Maldonado

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cerro Deportivo Maldonado

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportivo Maldonado.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Cerro ↑ +0.38 (+11.5%)

Deportivo Maldonado = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.