Deportivo Iztapa vs Juventud Copalera

30 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Deportivo Iztapa

Juventud Copalera

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.3% DRAW 19.6% AWAY 13.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.5% 1.52 DRAW 21.0% 4.66 AWAY 14.5% 6.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Deportivo Iztapa relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 67.3% win probability, compared with 64.5% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Deportivo Iztapa has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportivo Iztapa Juventud Copalera

Shots 4.3 · On target 1.8 Shots 4.0 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportivo Iztapa Juventud Copalera

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Deportivo Iztapa has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportivo Iztapa Juventud Copalera

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportivo Iztapa.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Deportivo Iztapa ↑ +0.04 (+2.7%)

Juventud Copalera ↑ +1.25 (+22.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.