Itabirito (W) vs Cruzeiro (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Itabirito (W)

Cruzeiro (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.2% DRAW 18.5% AWAY 70.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 12.2% 7.80 DRAW 19.6% 4.85 AWAY 68.3% 1.39

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Cruzeiro (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Itabirito (W) Cruzeiro (W)

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 19.8 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Cruzeiro (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Itabirito (W) Cruzeiro (W)

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Itabirito (W) Cruzeiro (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Cruzeiro (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Itabirito (W) ↑ +1.80 (+30.0%)

Cruzeiro (W) ↑ +0.03 (+2.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.