Madureira RJ U20 vs Vasco da Gama U20

30 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE AWAY +8.5 pp

Madureira RJ U20

Vasco da Gama U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 6.7% DRAW 14.7% AWAY 78.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 11.3% 8.70 DRAW 18.7% 5.26 AWAY 70.1% 1.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Vasco da Gama U20 substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 78.6% win probability, compared with 70.1% implied by the market. The 8.5 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Vasco da Gama U20 has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Madureira RJ U20 Vasco da Gama U20

Shots 10.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 31.3 · On target 18.5

Recent attacking output favours Vasco da Gama U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Madureira RJ U20 Vasco da Gama U20

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Vasco da Gama U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Madureira RJ U20 Vasco da Gama U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Vasco da Gama U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Madureira RJ U20 ↑ +1.20 (+16.0%)

Vasco da Gama U20 ↓ -0.24 (-14.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.