Philippines vs Pakistan

29 Sep 2026 · 11:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Philippines

Pakistan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 78.7% DRAW 14.1% AWAY 7.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 77.2% 1.23 DRAW 15.2% 6.25 AWAY 7.7% 12.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Philippines has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Philippines Pakistan

Shots 11.8 · On target 2.5 Shots 5.3 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Philippines, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Philippines Pakistan

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Philippines Pakistan

The combined recent performance profile favours Philippines.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Philippines ↓ 0.00 (-0.2%)

Pakistan ↑ +1.20 (+10.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.