Indonesia vs Bangladesh

01 Oct 2026 · 14:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Indonesia

Bangladesh

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 90.5% DRAW 6.6% AWAY 2.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 90.0% 1.05 DRAW 7.2% 13.00 AWAY 2.8% 34.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Indonesia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Indonesia Bangladesh

Shots 11.0 · On target 2.5 Shots 8.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Indonesia Bangladesh

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Indonesia Bangladesh

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Indonesia ↓ -0.03 (-2.4%)

Bangladesh ↑ +17.00 (+100.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.