Malaysia vs Indonesia

28 Sep 2026 · 14:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Malaysia

Indonesia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 15.9% DRAW 18.7% AWAY 65.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 17.9% 5.39 DRAW 20.3% 4.75 AWAY 61.8% 1.56

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Indonesia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 65.4% win probability, compared with 61.8% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Indonesia has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Malaysia Indonesia

Shots 9.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 14.0 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Indonesia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Malaysia Indonesia

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Indonesia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Malaysia Indonesia

The combined recent performance profile favours Indonesia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Malaysia ↓ -2.07 (-27.7%)

Indonesia ↑ +0.25 (+19.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.