Fernando de la Mora vs Libertad Asuncion

23 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Fernando de la Mora

Libertad Asuncion

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 7.2% DRAW 17.2% AWAY 75.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 6.9% 14.17 DRAW 17.0% 5.75 AWAY 76.1% 1.29

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Libertad Asuncion

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Fernando de la Mora Libertad Asuncion

Shots 7.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 14.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Libertad Asuncion, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Fernando de la Mora Libertad Asuncion

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 2.5

Fernando de la Mora has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Fernando de la Mora Libertad Asuncion

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Fernando de la Mora ↑ +5.27 (+58.6%)

Libertad Asuncion ↑ +0.10 (+8.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.