Independiente FBC vs Nacional Asuncion

30 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Independiente FBC

Nacional Asuncion

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 21.7% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 54.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 20.7% 4.61 DRAW 23.9% 3.99 AWAY 55.4% 1.72

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Nacional Asuncion

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente FBC Nacional Asuncion

Shots 8.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 14.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Nacional Asuncion, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente FBC Nacional Asuncion

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Independiente FBC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente FBC Nacional Asuncion

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Independiente FBC ↑ +0.61 (+15.1%)

Nacional Asuncion ↓ -0.01 (-0.4%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.