Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Club 4 de Mayo

23 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

Sportivo San Lorenzo

Club 4 de Mayo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 82.0% DRAW 11.7% AWAY 6.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 83.4% 1.10 DRAW 11.5% 8.00 AWAY 5.1% 18.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sportivo San Lorenzo

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo San Lorenzo Club 4 de Mayo

Shots 7.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 1.3 · On target 0.5

Recent attacking output favours Sportivo San Lorenzo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo San Lorenzo Club 4 de Mayo

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 1.5 · On target allowed 0.8

Club 4 de Mayo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo San Lorenzo Club 4 de Mayo

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Sportivo San Lorenzo ↓ -0.03 (-2.7%)

Club 4 de Mayo ↑ +4.50 (+33.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.