Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Nasr SC

02 Oct 2026 · 17:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.0 pp

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

Al Nasr SC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.4% DRAW 20.9% AWAY 21.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.4% 1.91 DRAW 22.6% 4.44 AWAY 25.0% 4.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 57.4% win probability, compared with 52.4% implied by the market. The 5.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Al Nasr SC

Shots 15.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Al Nasr SC

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Al Nasr SC

The combined recent performance profile favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ↑ +0.54 (+39.3%)

Al Nasr SC ↓ -3.30 (-45.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.