Myanmar vs Timor Leste

24 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

Myanmar

Timor Leste

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.2% DRAW 13.9% AWAY 8.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 73.4% 1.27 DRAW 15.9% 5.85 AWAY 10.7% 8.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Myanmar relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.2% win probability, compared with 73.4% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Myanmar has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Myanmar Timor Leste

Shots 14.3 · On target 5.3 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Myanmar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Myanmar Timor Leste

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 7.0

Myanmar has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Myanmar Timor Leste

The combined recent performance profile favours Myanmar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Myanmar ↓ -0.06 (-4.7%)

Timor Leste ↑ +2.70 (+45.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.