Montedio Yamagata vs Yokohama F-Marinos

29 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Montedio Yamagata

Yokohama F-Marinos

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.4% DRAW 22.6% AWAY 57.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.9% 4.74 DRAW 23.0% 4.10 AWAY 57.1% 1.65

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Yokohama F-Marinos has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Montedio Yamagata Yokohama F-Marinos

Shots 11.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 12.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Montedio Yamagata Yokohama F-Marinos

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Montedio Yamagata Yokohama F-Marinos

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Montedio Yamagata ↑ +0.74 (+18.5%)

Yokohama F-Marinos ↑ +0.03 (+1.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.