Jubilo Iwata vs JEF Utd Chiba

29 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Jubilo Iwata

JEF Utd Chiba

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.9% DRAW 26.8% AWAY 30.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.7% 2.38 DRAW 27.3% 3.46 AWAY 33.0% 2.86

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Jubilo Iwata relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 42.9% win probability, compared with 39.7% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Jubilo Iwata

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Jubilo Iwata JEF Utd Chiba

Shots 11.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 9.0 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Jubilo Iwata JEF Utd Chiba

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Jubilo Iwata JEF Utd Chiba

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Jubilo Iwata ↓ -0.03 (-1.0%)

JEF Utd Chiba ↑ +0.41 (+16.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.