Celta Vigo (W) vs Real Oviedo (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Celta Vigo (W)

Real Oviedo (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.3% DRAW 23.6% AWAY 43.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.8% 3.20 DRAW 24.0% 3.97 AWAY 46.2% 2.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Celta Vigo (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 33.3% win probability, compared with 29.8% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Real Oviedo (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Celta Vigo (W) Real Oviedo (W)

Shots 4.3 · On target 2.0 Shots 8.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Real Oviedo (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Celta Vigo (W) Real Oviedo (W)

Shots allowed 1.3 · On target allowed 0.3 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Celta Vigo (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Celta Vigo (W) Real Oviedo (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Celta Vigo (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Celta Vigo (W) ↑ +0.20 (+6.5%)

Real Oviedo (W) ↑ +0.06 (+3.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.