CD Samper (W) vs Getafe (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.3 pp

CD Samper (W)

Getafe (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.2% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 46.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.7% 3.23 DRAW 26.2% 3.78 AWAY 43.1% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Getafe (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.4% win probability, compared with 43.1% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Getafe (W)

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Samper (W) Getafe (W)

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 9.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Samper (W) Getafe (W)

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 3.3 · On target allowed 1.8

Getafe (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Samper (W) Getafe (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Getafe (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

CD Samper (W) ↑ +0.63 (+24.0%)

Getafe (W) = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.