Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy

29 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Sagan Tosu

Tokyo Verdy

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.2% DRAW 27.3% AWAY 39.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.2% 3.05 DRAW 27.4% 3.47 AWAY 41.4% 2.30

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Tokyo Verdy

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sagan Tosu Tokyo Verdy

Shots 12.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 13.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sagan Tosu Tokyo Verdy

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 3.0

Sagan Tosu has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sagan Tosu Tokyo Verdy

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sagan Tosu ↓ -0.15 (-4.7%)

Tokyo Verdy ↑ +0.29 (+14.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.