Matsumoto Y FC vs Albirex Niigata

29 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Matsumoto Y FC

Albirex Niigata

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.4% DRAW 26.0% AWAY 36.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.8% 2.80 DRAW 26.3% 3.60 AWAY 39.8% 2.38

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Matsumoto Y FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.4% win probability, compared with 33.8% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Matsumoto Y FC

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Matsumoto Y FC Albirex Niigata

Shots 11.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 8.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Matsumoto Y FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Matsumoto Y FC Albirex Niigata

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 6.3

Matsumoto Y FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Matsumoto Y FC Albirex Niigata

The combined recent performance profile favours Matsumoto Y FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Matsumoto Y FC ↓ -0.15 (-5.1%)

Albirex Niigata ↑ +0.40 (+20.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.