Japan vs Venezuela

28 Sep 2026 · 12:25

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Japan

Venezuela

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.2% DRAW 17.3% AWAY 9.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 74.5% 1.32 DRAW 17.1% 5.74 AWAY 8.4% 11.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Venezuela has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Japan Venezuela

Shots 7.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Venezuela, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Japan Venezuela

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Japan Venezuela

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Japan ↑ +0.07 (+5.6%)

Venezuela ↑ +2.40 (+25.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.