Bahia U20 vs Fortaleza U20

26 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Bahia U20

Fortaleza U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.3% DRAW 23.3% AWAY 21.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.8% 1.73 DRAW 24.3% 3.75 AWAY 22.8% 4.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Bahia U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.3% win probability, compared with 52.8% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bahia U20 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bahia U20 Fortaleza U20

Shots 15.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 12.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Bahia U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bahia U20 Fortaleza U20

Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 1.8

Bahia U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bahia U20 Fortaleza U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Bahia U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bahia U20 = (0.0%)

Fortaleza U20 ↑ +0.20 (+5.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.