Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia LP

03 Oct 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Independiente Rivadavia

Gimnasia LP

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.1% DRAW 30.7% AWAY 26.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.2% 2.16 DRAW 30.1% 3.25 AWAY 24.7% 3.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Gimnasia LP

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente Rivadavia Gimnasia LP

Shots 11.5 · On target 5.8 Shots 14.0 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente Rivadavia Gimnasia LP

Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Gimnasia LP has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente Rivadavia Gimnasia LP

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Independiente Rivadavia ↑ +0.31 (+17.0%)

Gimnasia LP ↓ -0.75 (-16.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.