Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe

03 Oct 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Boca Juniors

Union Santa Fe

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 65.9% DRAW 21.9% AWAY 12.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 65.6% 1.49 DRAW 22.2% 4.40 AWAY 12.2% 8.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Boca Juniors

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Boca Juniors Union Santa Fe

Shots 12.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Boca Juniors Union Santa Fe

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Boca Juniors has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Boca Juniors Union Santa Fe

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Boca Juniors ↓ -0.12 (-7.4%)

Union Santa Fe ↑ +1.50 (+23.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.