Chacarita Juniors vs Quilmes

20 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

Chacarita Juniors

Quilmes

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.9% DRAW 33.8% AWAY 36.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.3% 3.07 DRAW 33.1% 2.90 AWAY 35.6% 2.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Quilmes has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chacarita Juniors Quilmes

Shots 5.3 · On target 2.5 Shots 9.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Quilmes, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chacarita Juniors Quilmes

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chacarita Juniors Quilmes

The combined recent performance profile favours Quilmes.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Chacarita Juniors ↑ +0.27 (+9.6%)

Quilmes ↑ +0.02 (+0.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.