Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad

20 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.3 pp

Levski Sofia

Ludogorets Razgrad

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.7% DRAW 29.1% AWAY 30.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.4% 2.15 DRAW 28.7% 3.32 AWAY 26.9% 3.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Ludogorets Razgrad relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 30.2% win probability, compared with 26.9% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Ludogorets Razgrad has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Levski Sofia Ludogorets Razgrad

Shots 11.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 15.5 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Ludogorets Razgrad, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Levski Sofia Ludogorets Razgrad

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.3

Ludogorets Razgrad has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Levski Sofia Ludogorets Razgrad

The combined recent performance profile favours Ludogorets Razgrad.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Levski Sofia ↑ +0.15 (+7.5%)

Ludogorets Razgrad ↓ -0.18 (-4.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.