Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo vs Chernomorets Burgas

20 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo

Chernomorets Burgas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.6% DRAW 27.8% AWAY 35.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.4% 2.41 DRAW 27.9% 3.40 AWAY 32.7% 2.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Chernomorets Burgas relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 35.7% win probability, compared with 32.7% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Chernomorets Burgas has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Chernomorets Burgas

Shots 11.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 11.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Chernomorets Burgas, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Chernomorets Burgas

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Chernomorets Burgas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Chernomorets Burgas

The combined recent performance profile favours Chernomorets Burgas.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo ↑ +0.76 (+46.1%)

Chernomorets Burgas ↓ -1.61 (-35.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.