Itabirito (W) vs America MG (W)

30 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Itabirito (W)

America MG (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 35.8% DRAW 23.0% AWAY 41.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.8% 2.75 DRAW 23.9% 4.01 AWAY 41.4% 2.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

The overall recent shot balance favours the away side, although neither attack nor defence dominates every measure.

Attack Recent attacking output

Itabirito (W) America MG (W)

Shots 10.3 · On target 5.0 Shots 10.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Itabirito (W) America MG (W)

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Itabirito (W) America MG (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Itabirito (W) ↓ -0.75 (-21.4%)

America MG (W) ↑ +0.56 (+32.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.