Waterhouse vs Treasure Beach FC

28 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Waterhouse

Treasure Beach FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 64.2% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 13.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.7% 1.48 DRAW 23.4% 3.96 AWAY 13.9% 6.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Waterhouse

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Waterhouse Treasure Beach FC

Shots 7.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Waterhouse Treasure Beach FC

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Waterhouse has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Waterhouse Treasure Beach FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Waterhouse.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Waterhouse = (0.0%)

Treasure Beach FC ↑ +1.20 (+21.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.