Treasure Beach FC vs Tivoli Gardens

20 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Treasure Beach FC

Tivoli Gardens

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.6% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 38.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.7% 2.99 DRAW 27.5% 3.34 AWAY 41.8% 2.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Treasure Beach FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 33.6% win probability, compared with 30.7% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Tivoli Gardens

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Treasure Beach FC Tivoli Gardens

Shots 9.0 · On target 4.0 Shots 10.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Treasure Beach FC Tivoli Gardens

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 8.3

Treasure Beach FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Treasure Beach FC Tivoli Gardens

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Treasure Beach FC ↑ +0.33 (+12.4%)

Tivoli Gardens ↓ -0.15 (-6.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.