Tivoli Gardens vs Chapelton Maroons FC

27 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Tivoli Gardens

Chapelton Maroons FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 41.5% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 30.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.3% 2.21 DRAW 28.1% 3.33 AWAY 29.7% 3.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Chapelton Maroons FC

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tivoli Gardens Chapelton Maroons FC

Shots 8.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 9.0 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Tivoli Gardens, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tivoli Gardens Chapelton Maroons FC

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 7.5 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Chapelton Maroons FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tivoli Gardens Chapelton Maroons FC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Tivoli Gardens ↑ +0.21 (+10.5%)

Chapelton Maroons FC ↓ -0.18 (-5.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.