Al Waab FC vs Lusail

29 Sep 2026 · 19:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Al Waab FC

Lusail

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.1% DRAW 23.8% AWAY 47.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.2% 3.65 DRAW 24.0% 3.98 AWAY 49.8% 1.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Al Waab FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 29.1% win probability, compared with 26.2% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Al Waab FC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Waab FC Lusail

Shots 11.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 7.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Al Waab FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Waab FC Lusail

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Waab FC Lusail

The combined recent performance profile favours Al Waab FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Al Waab FC ↓ -0.26 (-6.5%)

Lusail ↑ +0.24 (+14.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.