Al Markhiya vs Al-Ahli Doha

29 Sep 2026 · 19:15

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.8 pp

Al Markhiya

Al-Ahli Doha

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.8% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 38.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.0% 2.88 DRAW 24.2% 3.81 AWAY 43.8% 2.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Al Markhiya clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.8% win probability, compared with 32.0% implied by the market. The 5.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Al Markhiya has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Markhiya Al-Ahli Doha

Shots 16.0 · On target 7.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Al Markhiya, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Markhiya Al-Ahli Doha

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Al Markhiya has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Markhiya Al-Ahli Doha

The combined recent performance profile favours Al Markhiya.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Al Markhiya ↓ -0.83 (-22.3%)

Al-Ahli Doha ↑ +0.05 (+2.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.