Al Gharafa vs Al Mesaimeer SC

01 Oct 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Al Gharafa

Al Mesaimeer SC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.3% DRAW 22.0% AWAY 24.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.0% 1.76 DRAW 22.6% 4.21 AWAY 23.3% 4.08

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Al Gharafa

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Gharafa Al Mesaimeer SC

Shots 13.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Al Gharafa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Gharafa Al Mesaimeer SC

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Al Mesaimeer SC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Gharafa Al Mesaimeer SC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Al Gharafa ↓ -0.01 (-0.7%)

Al Mesaimeer SC ↓ -1.42 (-25.8%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.