Brasil de Farroupilha (W) vs Gremio (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.6 pp

Brasil de Farroupilha (W)

Gremio (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.3% DRAW 13.4% AWAY 75.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 5.7% 17.00 DRAW 10.8% 9.00 AWAY 83.5% 1.16

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Brasil de Farroupilha (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 11.3% win probability, compared with 5.7% implied by the market. The 5.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Brasil de Farroupilha (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Brasil de Farroupilha (W) Gremio (W)

Shots 26.3 · On target 13.8 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Brasil de Farroupilha (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Brasil de Farroupilha (W) Gremio (W)

Shots allowed 2.3 · On target allowed 1.3 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Brasil de Farroupilha (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Brasil de Farroupilha (W) Gremio (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Brasil de Farroupilha (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Brasil de Farroupilha (W) ↑ +4.00 (+30.8%)

Gremio (W) ↓ -0.01 (-0.5%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.