Gimnasia Jujuy vs San Martin de Tucuman

28 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Gimnasia Jujuy

San Martin de Tucuman

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.7% DRAW 30.3% AWAY 25.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.7% 2.15 DRAW 30.0% 3.21 AWAY 25.3% 3.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Gimnasia Jujuy

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gimnasia Jujuy San Martin de Tucuman

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gimnasia Jujuy San Martin de Tucuman

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 3.0

San Martin de Tucuman has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gimnasia Jujuy San Martin de Tucuman

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Gimnasia Jujuy ↓ -0.05 (-2.3%)

San Martin de Tucuman ↓ -0.63 (-14.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.