Barcelona Guayaquil vs Independiente del Valle

22 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Barcelona Guayaquil

Independiente del Valle

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.5% DRAW 29.5% AWAY 39.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.8% 3.05 DRAW 29.4% 3.30 AWAY 38.8% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Independiente del Valle

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Barcelona Guayaquil Independiente del Valle

Shots 12.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 15.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Independiente del Valle, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Barcelona Guayaquil Independiente del Valle

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Barcelona Guayaquil Independiente del Valle

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Barcelona Guayaquil ↑ +0.10 (+3.4%)

Independiente del Valle ↑ +0.11 (+4.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.