Emley AFC vs Workington

29 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.6 pp

Emley AFC

Workington

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.5% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 43.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.4% 3.00 DRAW 24.4% 3.98 AWAY 43.2% 2.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Emley AFC

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Emley AFC Workington

Shots 8.0 · On target 2.5 Shots 4.0 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Emley AFC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Emley AFC Workington

Shots allowed 14.5 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Workington has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Emley AFC Workington

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Emley AFC = (0.0%)

Workington ↑ +0.25 (+12.5%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.