Sao Paulo vs Santos

03 Oct 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.0 pp

Sao Paulo

Santos

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.8% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 26.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.5% 2.01 DRAW 28.5% 3.43 AWAY 23.0% 4.24

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Santos relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 26.0% win probability, compared with 23.0% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Santos

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sao Paulo Santos

Shots 9.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 18.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Santos, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sao Paulo Santos

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sao Paulo Santos

The combined recent performance profile favours Santos.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sao Paulo ↑ +0.01 (+0.2%)

Santos ↑ +0.05 (+1.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.