Palestine vs New Zealand

24 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.8 pp

Palestine

New Zealand

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.5% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 43.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.7% 4.33 DRAW 26.9% 3.66 AWAY 50.4% 1.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Palestine clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 28.5% win probability, compared with 22.7% implied by the market. The 5.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: New Zealand

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Palestine New Zealand

Shots 6.3 · On target 2.5 Shots 8.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours New Zealand, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Palestine New Zealand

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 23.5 · On target allowed 6.3

Palestine has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Palestine New Zealand

The combined recent performance profile favours Palestine.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Palestine ↓ -0.46 (-9.6%)

New Zealand ↑ +0.34 (+21.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.