Japan vs Ecuador

01 Oct 2026 · 12:10

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Japan

Ecuador

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.0% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 20.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.9% 1.76 DRAW 25.0% 4.00 AWAY 18.2% 5.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Ecuador

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Japan Ecuador

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.0 Shots 13.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Ecuador, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Japan Ecuador

Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Japan Ecuador

The combined recent performance profile favours Ecuador.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Japan ↓ -0.37 (-17.5%)

Ecuador ↑ +1.59 (+40.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.