Panama vs New Zealand

01 Oct 2026 · 08:10

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Panama

New Zealand

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.9% DRAW 29.0% AWAY 31.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.3% 2.71 DRAW 29.1% 3.38 AWAY 34.6% 2.84

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Panama relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.9% win probability, compared with 36.3% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: New Zealand

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Panama New Zealand

Shots 8.8 · On target 2.5 Shots 11.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours New Zealand, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Panama New Zealand

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 20.0 · On target allowed 5.8

Panama has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Panama New Zealand

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Panama ↑ +0.58 (+27.3%)

New Zealand ↑ +0.02 (+0.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.