South Korea vs Ecuador

24 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

South Korea

Ecuador

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.2% DRAW 29.5% AWAY 30.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.7% 2.47 DRAW 29.5% 3.33 AWAY 30.9% 3.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Ecuador

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

South Korea Ecuador

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 13.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Ecuador, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

South Korea Ecuador

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 3.3

South Korea has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

South Korea Ecuador

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

South Korea ↓ -0.07 (-2.9%)

Ecuador ↑ +0.23 (+8.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.