Japan vs Uruguay

24 Sep 2026 · 12:05

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Japan

Uruguay

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.9% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 25.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.3% 1.97 DRAW 26.8% 3.70 AWAY 22.9% 4.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Uruguay relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 25.9% win probability, compared with 22.9% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Uruguay has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Japan Uruguay

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.3 Shots 15.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Uruguay, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Japan Uruguay

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 2.0

Uruguay has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Japan Uruguay

The combined recent performance profile favours Uruguay.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Japan ↓ -0.22 (-10.2%)

Uruguay ↑ +0.86 (+24.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.